Leitung: Prof. Dr. Mark Siebel
Beteiligt: Jakob Koscholke, Michael Schippers
Institution: Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg

Although coherence plays a significant role in human rationality, it is often neglected in theories of rational belief change, the main reason being the absence of both precise and widely accepted models of coherence. To overcome this deficit, the objective of our project is to develop and test probabilistic, a.k.a. Bayesian, measures of coherence and positive relevance (since coherence in a pivotal sense is mutual positive relevance). The project goes beyond the scope of the previous discussion insofar as, firstly, it results in a comprehensive comparison of the pros and cons of all relevant measures. Secondly, we go into conceptual differentiations largely ignored in the literature, including not only different notions of coherence—mutual positive relevance, relative overlap, striking agreement —but also diverse kinds of positive relevance—confirmation, justification, explanation, information transmission—, where confirmation covers notions such as plausibility increase, high plausibility and generalisation of deductive entailment. In due consideration of these distinctions, existing measures will be re-evaluated and new measures developed. Thirdly, we do not only scrutinise the adequacy of the given measures by thought experiments, and in doing so allow for "noise", i.e., probability ranges instead of point values, but also turn towards empirical tests. Fourthly, as regards confirmation, work in the Bayesian camp will be related to qualitative approaches in the vein of hypothetico-deductivism and ways of constructing a unified approach will be explored.

Projektrelevante Veröffentlichungen
Schippers, M., & Siebel, M. (2015). Inconsistency as a Touchstone for Coherence Measures. Theoria. Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia, 30(1), 11-41.
Schippers, M. (2014). Probabilistic measures of coherence: from adequacy constraints towards pluralism. Synthese, 191(16), 3821-3845.
Weitere Publikationen sind auf dieser Seite zu finden.

Bezug zur zweiten Förderperiode des SPP1516
Dieses Projekt wird in der zweiten Förderperiode fortgesetzt. Zur Projektseite...