PI: Prof. Dr. Mark Siebel
Involved: Jakob Koscholke,
Michael Schippers
Institution: Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg
Abstract
Although coherence plays a significant role in human rationality, it is often neglected in theories of rational belief change, the main
reason being the absence of both precise and widely accepted models of coherence. To overcome this deficit, the objective of our project
is to develop and test probabilistic, a.k.a. Bayesian, measures of coherence and positive relevance (since coherence in a pivotal sense
is mutual positive relevance). The project goes beyond the scope of the previous discussion insofar as, firstly, it results in a
comprehensive comparison of the pros and cons of all relevant measures. Secondly, we go into conceptual differentiations largely ignored
in the literature, including not only different notions of coherence—mutual positive relevance, relative overlap, striking agreement
—but also diverse kinds of positive relevance—confirmation, justification, explanation, information transmission—, where confirmation
covers notions such as plausibility increase, high plausibility and generalisation of deductive entailment. In due consideration of these
distinctions, existing measures will be re-evaluated and new measures developed. Thirdly, we do not only scrutinise the adequacy of the
given measures by thought experiments, and in doing so allow for "noise", i.e., probability ranges instead of point values, but also turn
towards empirical tests. Fourthly, as regards confirmation, work in the Bayesian camp will be related to qualitative approaches in the vein
of hypothetico-deductivism and ways of constructing a unified approach will be explored.
Project-related Publications
Schippers, M., & Siebel, M. (2015). Inconsistency as a Touchstone
for Coherence Measures. Theoria. Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia, 30(1), 11-41.
Schippers, M. (2014).
Probabilistic measures of coherence: from adequacy constraints towards pluralism. Synthese, 191(16), 3821-3845.
More publications can be found on this page.
Relation to the SPP1516's second funding period
This project continues during the second funding period.
Go to project page...